Random Thoughts on North Korea Nuke Accord
Oil for Vacation Time!
Calling this an agreement to denuclearize North Korea, or block any of Pyongyang’s future nuclear options, doesn’t cut it. This agreement is simply the exchange of fuel oil for the temporary freezing, not closure, of the North’s aged nuclear facility at Yongbyon. The most important goals – finding and permanently closing all of the North’s facilities, plus getting rid of any/all existing nuclear fuel and weapons … are left to some dreamy future fantasyland.
The North could freeze Yongbyon for a few months of relaxation and world happiness, collect its fuel oil donations, then restart Yongbyon later in the year and barely miss a beat in its nuke program. Plus, they could repeat the same scenario ad infinitum, irritating the U.S., China, and everyone else along the way, but still skillfully making similar agreements whenever Chinese/international heat gets too high.
The North is basically getting aid for nothing – though many in the U.S. right-wing (i.e. former UN ambassador John Bolton) have come out against the agreement, can you imagine the incredible decibel level had it been Carter or Clinton that signed this thing?
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With so many of the most important issues left up to future negotiations, a better name for this deal would be something like 6-Nations Diplomat Employment Act. Since so much was glossed over in the current deal, it’s going to take years of negotiations, plus tons more fuel and other aid, before anything even close to denuclearization of the North, the ‘Libyan endgame’ everyone is hoping for, actually occurs. So send in your applications now, and you too could spend years in Beijing hotel rooms bargaining with the North!
Good News for Traveling U.S. Citizens
The North was all set to allow in American tourists last August, but backed out at the last minute when its July missile test brought a fresh round of international opprobrium. With this current agreement, especially its call for future U.S. diplomatic recognition of the North (something that Pyongyang has long desired, and originally promised in the 1994 nuclear agreement), the chances are very good that Americans will be allowed into North Korea later this year – the first time since October 2005 (not coincidentally, right after a previous ‘breakthrough’ in the 6-party talks).
Worried that the deal may blow up before the North’s summer travel season? Legitimate, but there’s so much fluff and diplomatic yapping built into this process that, even in the worst case, the summer will hopefully have come and gone before things get too far into the dumper. All you’ve got to do is place your bets on bureaucratic inefficiency!
Japan and Iran
Interestingly, Japan did not agree to provide any of the aid mentioned in the agreement. It stuck to its guns, saying it will only provide aid to the North once a full accounting is made of Japanese citizens abducted to the North in the 1970s and 80s. The aid will instead be provided only by the U.S., South Korea, China, and Russia.
Since any fuel oil provided by the bill will need congressional approval, may I humbly suggest that the honorary name for this bill be Iranian Nuclear Weapons Support Act? Because, god/Allah knows, after witnessing the North test a nuke, then get an agreement for aid within four months, the Iranians would be nuts not to speed up their nuclear development!
